7-Day MLB WAR (6/4)

We took last week off because of Memorial Day (and because I forgot, which seems strangely antithetical to Memorial Day), but we are back with a vengeance today. And I’m going to monkey with the whole nature of the feature for a second straight time. Because I’m transgressive like that. Last time I looked at the season as a whole. This time I’m going to make up for last week and look at the past 14 days instead of 7. That’s twice as much baseball for the same price. Like 18 innings of fun. Whoo. Here we go.

Your MLB Batting WAR Leader of the Week(s): Joey Votto, DUN (1.0 / 3.4)
I thought about just blubbering Dunedin’s name all over this caption, but I figure I’ve done that enough already. But 3.4 WAR already isn’t too shabby. I haven’t seen a Canadian rake like this since that garden tool made out of Moose antlers! Am I right? Right?

Look! It’s M. Cabrera up here at the top, just like we expec-WHAT??: Melky Cabrera, LVE (1.0 / 2.4)
That’s 2.4 wins above replacement in 2 months. In 4 full seasons from 2007-2010, he had 1.2. That would be half.

Man on an Island Section: Troy Tulowitzki, SCV (0.9 / 1.7)
Next season he and Miguel Cabrera might have to communicate with the outside world via notes in bottles.

In Season Debuts: Carlos Quentin, EGC (0.8 / 0.8)
I guess he can fall out of bed and start hitting. The problem is that he breaks 3 bones and strains a hamstring when he falls out of bed.

And an old face arrives: Albert Pujols, FDQ (0.8 / 0.2)
We knew Albert would turn it around. It’s not like he’s 37 years old or something. Or something. It’s NOT like that.

Your MLB Pitching WAR Leader of the Week(s): Dan Haren, FDQ (1.1 / 1.9)
He moves from Vegas to Ft. Duquesne for a playoff run and immediately ends up here. Is Cooper the anti-Chad? The anti-Midas? Trade a player and then he turns to gold? By the way, if you’re wondering whether Dan Haren is worth his weight in gold, the answer is yes and more. 200 pounds of gold is worth a bit more than $3 million. So go get it.

Dispatch from the Greenback junkheap: James McDonald, ARI (0.7 / 2.2)
I’m already tired of hearing Hobbs say the phrase “J-Mac.” It’s not as bad as “F-Her,” but it’s pretty damn bad.

The Anti-Anti-Midas Touch Theory: Gio Gonzalez, LVE (0.7 / 2.5)
I’m pretty much convinced that Chad has secret footage of Gio Gonzalez steering a car into a brick wall and he just can’t get the image out of his head. Half a year of undervaluing him and then he’s off to Vegas.

And I’m Depressed Again: Matt Cain, ARI and Adam Wainwright, ARI (both 0.6)
We narrowly averted the Josh Willinghamilton disaster when Chad traded Willingham to Cooper instead of Hobbs. But next season will mark the return of Cainwright. Oh goody. Goody for me.

Season to Date MLB WAR

I’ve been doing these updates every Monday now since the season started, but I wanted to do something a bit different today. The reason I didn’t do the top 10 in season-to-date WAR every week was because it would be mostly the same players from week to week. But I think it makes sense to take a peek every once in a while at what the overall picture looks like. Maybe once a month. I don’t know. I’m making this up as I go along. Not the letters or words I’m typing; those are part of the English language. I didn’t make that up. I’ve known it for a while.

To the lists!

Top 10 in Batting WAR, Season to Date:

Player			Team	PA	WAR

1) Josh Hamilton	ARI	172	3.4

2) Austin Jackson	ARI	159	2.6

3) Ryan Braun		DUN	169	2.4

4) Martin Prado		STK	178	2.3

5) Joey Votto		DUN	176	2.2

6) Matt Kemp		BAL	139	2.2

7) Paul Konerko		orL	161	2.2

8) Michael Bourn	SCC	197	2.2

9) AJ Ellis		RK?	132	2.1

10) Carlos Ruiz		LVE	136	2.0

It’s certainly surprising to see a couple of Greenbacks at the top of this list, but only one of them is coming out of left field. That would be Josh Hamilton, who plays there sometimes. Austin Jackson is coming out of center field, of course, which is why he’s so highly rated. Without Jacoby Ellsbury, the other top 2 of the fearsome 3 in the Dunedin order have pushed their way into the Top 5. Prado is here partly because of his defensive numbers, but it all counts in the spreadsheets. Of course Matt Kemp would be higher if he had a few more PAs, but UZR is still being a Rihanna fan this season. The only rookie to make the list is AJ Ellis, who could come in as an impact catcher at an advanced age for a 1st-year player. Following him is another backstop in Carlos Ruiz.

Top 10 in Pitching WAR, Season to Date:

Player			Team	IP	WAR

1) Justin Verlander	FDQ	67.3	2.5

2) Zack Greinke		STK	56.7	2.3

3) Jake Peavy		BAL	64.0	2.0

4) Gio Gonzalez		EGC	48.7	1.8

5) Stephen Strasburg	RK?	53.0	1.8

6) Roy Halladay		orL	64.3	1.8

7) Jered Weaver		DUN	61.0	1.8

8) Felix Hernandez	EGC	62.7	1.7

9) Cole Hamels		EGC	54.3	1.5

10) James McDonald	ARI	50.3	1.5

It’s probably more of a surprise that we *don’t* see Clayton Kershaw on this list, but Justin Verlander holds down the fort at #1. It’s a nice comeback season for Greinke thus far, but he can’t hold a candle to the comeback that our #3 player has made. (And please don’t put that candle too close to Peavy’s shoulder, since it’s probably still flammable.) How about Elm Grove with 3 of the top 10, including Cardinal punching bag Gio Gonzalez, who is only leading that illustrious staff in WAR thus far. orLando traded Carpenter, but they still have Halladay, and he’s still Halladay. Of course one of the more sought-after pieces in this season’s draft could be Strasburg, if he qualifies amid this glut of great pitching. Lastly, how about Arizona sneaking James McDonald onto this list? In honor of this, they’ll try to sneak him into a game pretty soon, in which he’ll give up 1.5 walks and 1.5 homers in every inning. 2012 Greenbacks!

7-Day MLB WAR (5/14)

We’ve been doing this consistently since the beginning of the season. Which is good, because dependability and endurance! But it’s also bad, because I don’t want to keep looking back in the archives to see just how many weeks it has been. So now you get the date at the top. And, without further ado, I present the week in Josh Hamilton. Er, I mean baseball. Probably about the same either way.

Your Batting WAR Leader of the Week: Danny Valencia!
I’m just joking. He went 0-12 and is now in the minors. But that was fun.

Your Batting WAR Leader of the Week: Josh Hamilton, ARI (1.5 / 3.2)
That’s 1.5 wins in a week. 7 games, 1.5 wins. That means he was able to win more games this week than either Arizona or Colorado. Those are entire major league teams, mind you. 25 active players, some coaches, a bag of baseballs, a pitching net. Teams.

In any other week, he’d be at the top: Andrew McCutchen, FDQ (0.8 / 1.3)
I’d say that he wins the non-alien batting WAR title this week, but with those dreads and some of those facial expressions my money might be on Andrew as the extraterrestrial.

Last night might have had something to do with this: Joey Votto, DUN (0.8 / 2.0)
The perfect intersection of my baseball interests right here. He hits 3 homers, including a walk-off granny to win it for my favorite team, and his stats count for Dunedin. It’s a wonder I can get through this recap without losing myapodafkjadgdfYAAAAAY!

Did someone say Dunedin: Ryan Braun, DUN (0.7 / 2.0)
Okay, I think I’ve recovera;ldkjagspdoiadadfadsf!!!!

Throw a Greenback on that fire: Nelson Cruz, ARI (0.8 / 0.7)
So Arizona has players doing well? Maybe he’ll trade them to Chad before the season starts like he always does and restore the rightful balance to the league.

Your Pitching WAR Leader of the Week: Roy Halladay, orL (0.8 / 1.8)
He’s now without his RBA partner Chris Carpenter, but he’s shaping up for yet another fine underachieving RBA season.

Rookie Watch: Scott Diamond (0.6 / 0.6)
You laugh, but they plucked this guy out of the rough and, well, look at what he became. Thank you. I’ll be here all week. Not on the blog, but at this computer.

Loose from the Asylum Section: Carlos Zambrano, PIT (0.6 / 0.9)
Somehow Carlos is holding it together this season. It just proves that when you put him with a calming influence like Ozzie Guillen his softer side emerges.

Just don’t pay attention to last week: AJ Burnett, SCV (0.5 / 0.7)
The fact that he is at 0.7 for the season is amazing given that he lit himself on fire and let it burn for almost 3 innings during one of his starts. That wasn’t this past week, by the way.

Look out for SoCal: Zack Greinke (0.6 / 1.7) and Brandon McCarthy, STK (0.4 / 1.1)
You think there are no runs being scored in SoCal *this* season? Just wait until next season. When they will have another good pitching staff and they’ll score a million more runs than they will this season because criminy how could anything be that bad again. I mean, really.

7-Day MLB WAR, Week 5

I had to look hard for some RBA hitters who are actually, you know, hitting the ball. Which makes this post a lot like the 2012 RBA season! Hey look! It’s SoCal! 106 runs in 44 games. I’m just going to keep writing that until I understand and/or believe it. I just wrote it atop my final exam cover sheet.

Anyway, on to the WAR.

Your Batting WAR Leader of the Week: Cameron Maybin, DUN (0.7 / 1.1)
This isn’t exactly the Dunedin outfielder that one might have suspected to top this list. He can’t even crack the Dunedin starting lineup this season, after all. However, as Hobbs will attest, that’s quite a lineup to crack. Am I right, Hobbs? Maybe you were expecting an outfielder more like this?

This is the continuation of that question mark: Ryan Braun, DUN (0.6 / 1.1)
And I didn’t even need mental steroids to make that connection!

The “Mike Leake” award for names that sound disgusting: Asdrubal Cabrera, BAL (0.5 / 1.2)
I think that heading says it all. At least I hope it says all I’m going to say about this.

Rookie Watch: Brian LaHair (0.6 / 1.7) and Kyle Seager (0.6 / 1.1)
Hobbs has already called in his pick on LaHair in the first round. What is there not to like? He’s 29, his name sounds European and quite possibly French, which suits Jeff’s communist leanings, and he’s going to be playing in Japan in 3 years. Sounds like a Greenback!

Your Pitching WAR Leader of the Week: Felix Hernandez, EGC (0.7 / 1.6)
Felix squeezed in 2 starts this week to claim the crown as the king of the RBA pitchers. I’ve run out of interesting things to say about Felix. He’s good. Analysis!

Returning Vet Watch, or Missing Person Alert: Jerome Williams (0.6 / 0.8)
Seriously. This guy was once in the RBA. I bet you could win a lot of bar bets with that, although if you find someone at a bar willing to bet you with the subject being RBA history, please let me know where that is. I could seek an early retirement. Or a mental asylum.

A FanGraphs favorite makes good: Brandon Morrow, STK (0.5 / 0.4)
Step 1: Stop striking out so many guys and give up more contact
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit!

You don’t need me to tell you this guy had a good week: Jered Weaver, DUN (0.5 / 1.8)
You know what would be great? If someone could actually throw a no-hitter in the RBA! Not that I’m waiting for it or anything. Nope. It’s only been nine and a half years.

One of these things is not like the other: Matt Cain, ARI (0.5 / 1.0) and James McDonald, ARI (0.5 / 0.8)
First of all, shouldn’t Matt Cain have like 17 billion WAR by now? Oh, wait. I forgot. He has triggered the “doesn’t know how to win” variable in the calculation. Since he has only 1 pitcher win, he’s going to be stuck at 1.0 no matter what. Got it.

A Halfway Report

A few times during the season, I run a report on the WAR and runs scored/runs allowed of the teams to see which are underachieving and overachieving (by those measures). I’ll note my thoughts below the table, but here above the table I’d like to explain what you’re going to see. The first column is a combination of letters that compose the English version of the name of the RBA team in question. Next you’ll see the team’s current wins multiplied by (81/42). In the third column is the preseason number of wins from Hobbs’ spreadsheet (which Chad and I played over/under with in the season opening podcast). After that, you’ll see my calculations for the WAR wins and RS/RA wins, from a regression formula. To the table!

Team         Proj. Wins      Hobbs O/U     WAR Wins      RS/RA Wins

Arizona         29             26            31.5          27.5

Atlanta         38.5           39            38            37.5

Baltimore       46.5           42            45            45.5

Dunedin         52             46            44.5          46

Elm Grove       38.5           52            43            44.4

Ft. Duquesne    50             50            42            42.5

Las Vegas       42.5           51            40.5          40.5

orLando         34.5           40            40.5          41

Pittsburgh      36.5           25            38.5          39.5

Silver City     44.5           43            43.5          44.5

SoCal           23             24            31            27.5

State College   50             46            48.5          50

I’ll give some thoughts in roughly top to bottom order.

-The first team that stands out to me is Baltimore, one of the mild surprises of the first half. Their rate win totals are right in line with what they have now, so it’s possible that they can finish with 4 or 5 more wins than predicted. By the way, I took the over on Baltimore while Chad took the under.

-Dunedin owns the best record in the league through 42 games, but this analysis suggests that they might be closer to a 46-win team than 52-win team. Some regression might be at hand here.

-Of course, since Baltimore and Dunedin are winning more than we thought they would, those wins have to come from somewhere. It’s not like there is a tree in the RBA’s backyard on which wins grow. What kind of flower would that be anyway? Elm Grove is sitting 13 and a half wins below their predicted pace, which is frankly amazing. Their run differential is +20, however, and this is reflected as you look across the table. They haven’t been that much different from Dunedin, but they have given 7 games to the Blues through the first 42, which is going to be hard to make up.

-Ft. Duquesne is an interesting case, mostly because their win total should be exactly what we expect it to be, but their rate stats seem to think that they haven’t been playing nearly that well. My theory is that their offense is underachieving at the individual level and they are making it up with a bit of luck.

-Las Vegas is also missing some wins in the Larkin, but this analysis suggests that they are outperforming their rate stats. By the way, Chad pushed on Elm Grove and Vegas, so we sort of tied that one since I took the over on Vegas and the under on Elm Grove.

-Meanwhile, orLando seems to be a 40 or 41 win team in every way except their current record and Pittsburgh seems to be almost as good, like their current record, confounding the preseason expectations.

-Silver City, like Atlanta, is right in line all the way across the board.

-And finally, State College appears to be 2-4 wins better than what we thought, evidenced in every column. Kudos to Chad on this one, who went over on the 46 number that was quoted preseason.

7-Day MLB WAR, Week 4

So we’re four weeks into this little experiment, huh? This is going almost as well as Albert Pujols in Anaheim, right? Maybe even better! But it’s still early. Let’s get to the stats.

Your Batting WAR Leader of the Week: Jay Bruce, orL (0.8 / 0.7 for season)
They aren’t booing; they’re saying Bruuuuuuce! Or Boo-urns. One or the other. I can attest to the week that this guy has had, though hitting 3 homers in 3 games against the Astros is kind of like getting 10 points on 3 straight Skee-Ball throws.

Good things come in small packages: Jose Altuve, ATL (0.7 / 1.4)
Fun fact: That 0.7 is also his height in meters. If you don’t get that joke, get on the Metric System. All the cool kids are doing it!

Your daily reminder that Hobbs is, well, Hobbs: Paul Konerko, orL (0.7 / 1.4)
Hobbs chose Dunn over Konerko, as you’ll recall. He also chose Carlos Delgado over Josh Johnson, which I don’t think I’ve ever brought up. Also, how about Dave’s week! He hasn’t had a week this good since the 2003 Brew Pub 5-Miler! (See earlier picture.)

Third Basemen who might just do something sometime: Mike Moustakas, STK (0.6 / 1.3) and Pedro Alvarez, PIT (0.6 / 0.4)
Look at those two clubs represented here! Rebuilding is fun! Also, I think Pedro had zero non-HR hits before this week, which would explain that season WAR number.

These guys are still on RBA squads, but I wasn’t sure of that before looking it up: Buster Posey, BAL (0.5 / 1.1) and Jason Kubel, FDQ (0.6 / 0.5)
An entry from the wheelchair division! And from whatever division Kubel is in. Maybe the Men’s 30-and-up softball division? That sounds right.

Your Pitching WAR Leader of the Week: Jake Peavy, BAL (0.7 / 1.6)
Jake Peavy? Really? If you’d told me Jake Peavy had 0.7 shoulder ligaments left, I would have sooner believed that. Of course you had to think that with Cliff Lee and Josh Beckett on the squad, Jake Peavy would be leading Baltimore in pitching WAR. Baseball.

Did someone say baseball in an addled fashion?: Josh Johnson, STK (0.7 / 1.0)
So I’ve been stating all month that Josh Johnson is clearly cooked. Apparently I should look at things like his 0.86 FIP vis-a-vis his 4.50 ERA for the week before shooting my dumb mouth off. His BABIP was actually 35.4 this week. Don’t look that up; just take my word for it.

In an ongoing love affair with FIP: Matt Garza, ATL (0.6 / 0.8)
Seriously. Get a room, you two.

Rookie Watch (but not really): Wade Miley (0.5 / 0.4)
Hobbs would still take him in the first round.

Rookie Watch (for real this time): Yu Darvish (0.5 / 0.7)
Strasburg only made 1 start this week, which is why he’s not here, but rest assured that he’s at 1.3 WAR this season. Remember that draft last season? Oh. You do? Well, I’m hoping that you don’t after this next one.

A Look at Season Records, 2012

We’ve talked a bit about milestones and career stats, but now that we have reached the halfway point in the season, I thought it would be a good time to look at marks from this current year. Of course 81 can’t be divided by 2 into an integer, but then again I’ve already played part of Week 41, so it’s as close as we’ll get to halfway. This is as good as you can do without a slide rule! But why would you do anything without a slide rule, really. I mean, really.

This is the year of the pitcher, so the hitters can only do so much. And for our purposes here, so much means a passing reference to Miguel Montero, who is hitting .378. Of course our season mark is held by a fellow catcher, Joe Mauer, at 25 points above that, so Montero isn’t going to approach the record. It is worth noting that Montero leads the rest of the loop by 49 points right now, with Jose Reyes in 2nd at .329. Alex Rodriguez is over .400, but he doesn’t and will not have the PAs to qualify.

A discussion of the pitchers looking to make their marks this season has to start (and perhaps end) with Clayton Kershaw of Ft. Duquesne. Kershaw has a 1.44 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP through 8 starts and 62 1/3 innings, which is almost unbelievable, even in this season of watered-down offense. If he can keep this up, he would challenge both records. First, the WHIP record, which is right at 0.80, is held by Randy Johnson’s 2005 campaign. Kershaw would need to sustain his current performance in the second half to get there. However, he has some slack in the ERA race, as he is 35 points AHEAD of what has been one of the most long-standing records this league has seen. Pedro Martinez put up a 1.79 ERA in the 2001 season and no pitcher has even finished under 2.00 since then. However, Kershaw is joined by Tim Lincecum (1.82) and Justin Masterson (1.88), both of State College, in achieving that designation in this season’s first half. Of course Kershaw is the favorite here to run down Pedro. It won’t be easy, however.

For a long time, it was impossible to throw more than 2 shutouts in an RBA season. From 2001-2009, about 20 pitchers did the feat, but no one threw as many as 3. Then Felix Hernandez threw 4 in 2010, claiming the top spot. The only pitcher this season with more than 1 at this, the halfway point, is Justin Verlander, who does have 2. If he can piece together 2 more in the second half, he would join Felix at the top of that list. And finally, Verlander will join a horde of hurlers who will try to capture the innings title. It’s possible, though some of these horses would really have to gallop in the second half. The pitcher with the best shot is Chris Carpenter of orLando, who leads the league right now with 63. Many are within 2 or 3 IP of him at that mark, however. To put a calculation to it, Carpenter would need 69 IP in his last 9 starts to tie the record of 132, held by Randy Johnson in that same 2005 campaign.

Of course, I’m discussing individual records here, but I can’t close without mentioning that SoCal now has 104 runs in their 41 games played, which is on pace to shatter and obliterate and inhale the old record of Baltimore, which was set just last year. Baltimore scored 247 runs last season to set that mark; SoCal is on pace to score about 205.5. Ye-ouch.